Dados apontam um aumento maior do que o esperado no desemprego do país, o que demonstra uma certa dificuldade na recuperação econômica do país. Ainda assim, os dados de abril serão mais decisivos, pois existem fatores sazonais para esse aumento de desemprego nos quatro primeiros meses do ano. Para Thais Barcellos, pesquisadora do IDados, com base em dados da PNAD Contínua, o setor privado será o responsável por diminuir o desemprego no país, nos próximos meses, e ajudar o país em seu processo de recuperação.
Os dados e a declaração da pesquisadora Thais estão em reportagem da Bloomberg, do dia 27 de abril, e foi distribuída para seus assinantes internacionais.
Brazil’s Unemployment Rises More Than All Analysts Forecast
By David Biller
(Bloomberg) – Brazil’s unemployment rate rose more than expected in the first quarter, as companies laid off temporary workers in line with a seasonal trend.
The jobless rate jumped to 13.1 percent in the three months ending in March, marking its third straight increase, the national statistics institute reported Friday. The result was
above the median 12.9 percent estimate from 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
While seasonal factors tend to push unemployment higher in the first quarter, a rising jobless rate comes as other indicators show Brazil’s economic recovery losing steam. Economists have lowered their GDP forecasts for four straight weeks, and the central bank is signaling it may provide yet more stimulus by lowering borrowing costs again when its monetary policy committee convenes in May.
“The uptick in the first quarter is a bit bigger than we would’ve expected, but not dramatically so,’’ Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said by phone. “April’s numbers will be critical; if we don’t get a fall
in April then I think it starts to look like a turn in the trend, or suggesting something more serious is happening.’’
Brazilian companies tend to lay off temporary workers at the start of the year, according to the coordinator of the statistics agency’s unemployment survey, Cimar Azeredo.
Rosenberg Consultores Associados’ chief economist Thais Zara agreed that the first-quarter uptick represents a seasonal impact and forecast the rate will resume its drop in April to reach 10.6 percent by year-end.
“You still have economic recovery, but happening in a slower way,” she said before the release of the data.
To read more about Brazilian economists lowering 2018 GDP, inflation forecasts, click here.
Notwithstanding recent weakness in economic data, the number of formal jobs being created has been rising. It jumped in the first quarter, compared to a net loss in the first three months of 2017 — indicating the private-sector will play a greater role in lowering unemployment over coming months, said Thais Barcellos, an economy researcher at data analysis firm IDados.